"On the prediction of an accurate death count, it doesn't matter too much whether the death rate is 20% or 40% or 60%. Any of those numbers is bad enough that most other matters, such as the price of oil, and whether the death count in Iraq has reached 2000, or 3000, will not be a big deal."
You're definitely thinking about this. The prospect of dying sure can put things in perspective. More people are murdered in Detroit every year than are killed in Iraq. Pretty interesting that Iraq is safer than Detroit, eh? I bicycle through the bad areas of Detroit on a regular basis, and believe the statistic.
WHO estimates death count could be 100 Million.
Tamiflu has been shown to be partially effective, reducing the length of illness by about a day on average. It won't stop the healthy from dying unless administered very quickly. In the Spanish Flu the healthy usually died within hours of showing symptoms, killed by the body's immune system response. That's why the secondary pnuemonia, which normally does the killing in Pandemics, never sets in. There's not enough time.
Even sailing might not help. If people become immune, but are still carriers, then when you finally pull into port you would contract it. It would buy you time if a vaccine became available. |
