SARS and Avian Flu Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (2652)	10/15/2005 1:36:37 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 4232

<WHO estimates death count could be 100 Million. > How can it be that low? Suppose mortality of those infected is only 50% without Tamiflu treatment [it could be as bad as 70%] or even only 30%. Something like half the population would catch the bug over a 2 year period, but suppose it's only a third, which is what some influenzas get. That would be about 2 billion people challenged with the disease. With a kill rate of 50% that would be a billion dead people. If it's only a 30% death rate, that would still be 600 million dead. With luck and a following wind and fingers crossed, it might drop to a 15% mortality rate and that would mean 300 million dead. These are still very big numbers. Mqurice

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