Hello ild, <<Is there a reason to believe that China will become something comparable to the US in research, development of new technologies etc?>>
Just from what I have seen, I do not doubt the premise for one moment, and thus my worry about the general level of competition going forward for my kid
eubusiness.com
China graduates about 200k engineers / scientists per annum, and so plenty of raw material, even as more schools and teachers are being aggregated; but as in the case of most issues, I do not believe the simple numbers tell the story.
I believe the society, from the very top to the absolute bottom, realizes the importance of education; coupled with a respect for education and for teaching, the society also believes nothing is impossible, only the ways forward needs to be tried, and so the trend is clear.
<<Yesterday I had a dinner with one university professor who argued that China is not capable of challenging the dominance of the US in these areas in our lifetime>>
I am guessing the man is 60 years old and expects to live to 80. Should he live to 81, he will see not just a challenge, but an overtaking, in the small r, big D, and after another 4 years, the big R as well.
While the improvements are cumulative, advantages are at the margin, fragile, and can be more easily copied and improved upon than be put together originally.
The catch-up is actually easier than the original trailblazing, but the over-take is much easier than the catch-up.
I think it is dangerous to adopt the attitude that "they will still lag here ... and there", because as in the case on Unreal Tournament 2004 on-line game, the conclusion is always one or the other team rushing forth, from every direction, in every way, in onslaught mode, and establishing, to be polite, a leading position, right before the announcer proclaims, "Team One, You Won the Match".
This is what I meant when noting that the folks are getting false signals and wrong messages, or they are not getting any messages at all.
I think the rising challenge from China and India is good for the world, because maybe perhaps just possibly something good will arise, and new ways forward will work, else, as some numbnut thought, history ended and all that needs to be done is done.
Just as England engaged the US so as to remain relevant, perhaps the US will see that it is to its advantage to engage the competition. Who knows? Let's watch.
Chugs, J |
