Wintel's Demise Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Wintel's Demise

MSFT 514.77

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Nov 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: Christine Traut who wrote (129)	9/12/1997 12:32:00 PM
From: Punko	of 328

Your assessment is on target. Longer term, there will be a shakeout among the commodity box makers as the market for fat clients craters. Even the stronger ones like Dell are in danger, since they command such high PE's. In order to justify these numbers, they must continue to grow at high rates. This means growth not merely in unit sales (they can achieve this by dropping their prices) but in earnings as well. That's where the NC will bludgeon them. Ditto for Mr. Gates and his empire. Can you imagine shorting Microsoft? Not just yet, but with their astronomical PE (esp. given their huge basis), the time is coming. Disclaimer: All my musings are based on the NC fulfilling (at least partially) its promise. We have yet to see much from Sun, Oracle, Netscape, IBM, & co. But when we do, I've got my shorts planned. BTW have you seen the Oracle NC commercial? The marketing wars are brewing.

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