I first wrote about QDEL (Quidel Corp.) some time ago and mentioned their turn-around potential with their new CEO. They are the leader in rapid tests for the flu virus, infectious diseases, and reproductive health. The stock price dipped a few months after my post but it has risen steadily ever since. A year ago QDEL earned .01; this year estimates are for .21 and next year .40. That's quite impressive.
finance.yahoo.com
Quidel sells its products to professionals for use in physician offices, hospitals, clinical laboratories, and wellness screening centers. It markets its products through a network of distributors and sales people in the U.S., Japan, Europe, and Latin America.
QDEL is up some 204% since its low in the spring but I think it can continue up. I again purchased QDEL this morning at $10.50 because of their continued success, strong management focus and the possible avian flu pandemic. I don't consider myself a scaremonger and am skeptical about wild predictions and inflammatory news coverage. But as an investor my takeaway is that health experts are working it and getting the word out, people will be understandably concerned and more flu tests will be done, among other actions, of course. Health officials say if the Avian flu does arrive in the U.S. people should use the same preventable measures as the regular flu, which includes testing to see if you have it. From Quidel's website, flutest.com:
In order to effectively treat flu, it needs to be detected quickly. To do this it is important to recognize influenza's symptoms at their start. When symptoms are present, or a person believes they have been exposed to the flu virus, they can visit their doctor or urgent care clinic to have a QuickVue® Influenza test performed. The test results will help any healthcare professional understand if it is influenza or perhaps some other illness that mimics the flu.
A July 2005 report from the WHO gives Quidel's two tests an "easy" score in terms of General Use and Ease of Interpretation (the best possible score). Significantly, Quidel's Technician Attendance Time was only 2 minutes; many other manufacturers had times of 10-25 minutes. One other company scored as well as Quidel, but Quidel has the dominant market share. I'll go with the lead horse.
Snip:
WHO recommendations on the use of rapid testing for influenza diagnosis
Influenza outbreaks and epidemics pose ongoing risks to global human public health. Recently, human infections with A/H5N1 avian influenza viruses have heightened the potential for the emergence of an influenza A virus with pandemic potential. In response, the World Health Organization (WHO) is working to strengthen influenza surveillance and increase laboratory capacity for the diagnosis of influenza and the early detection of emerging pandemic strains.
Laboratory identification of human influenza virus infections is commonly performed using direct antigen detection, virus isolation in cell culture, or detection of influenza-specific RNA by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). In recent years commercial influenza rapid diagnostic tests have become available. These are mostly antigen detection tests, which can produce results within 30 minutes. They can provide results in a clinically relevant time frame to complement the use of antiviral medications for treatment and chemoprophylaxis of influenza...
If the avian flu comes under control and the fear subsides, well, that is terrific news and I still own a successful, growing company that does many other things besides flu tests.
Recent headlines:
Quidel Joins Fight for Early Detection of Colon Cancer
Thursday September 15
Expands Product Portfolio to Target 50 Million U.S. Test Market for Fecal Occult Blood Tests
Sept. 26, 2005: Quidel Corporation today announced at the 27th Annual American Society of Bone and Mineral Research conference that it has secured strategic co-marketing agreements to leverage Quidel's global capabilities to collaborate with osteoporosis research institutions for the development of new markers which may benefit osteoporosis and post-menopausal patients.
Thursday October 6
QDEL is awarded the 2005 Growth Strategy Leadership Award for their proven growth, technological innovation and leadership. Noted was the increased market share of POC influenza tests by 11 percentage points in 2004, up to 60 percent. Additionally, Quidel outsold its competitors of two different tests by 3 to 1 and 2 to 1. The Award also recognized Quidel's ability to accommodate multiple tests on a single device. According to a 2005 brand awareness study, their QuickVue® Influenza and Strep A brands were ranked number one in accuracy, reliability, consistency and ease of use.
Turkey Confirms Deadly Strain of Bird Flu
11 October 2005, Tuesday.
Experts have confirmed the cases of bird flu in Turkey are from the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus, which has killed millions of birds and 65 people in Asia since 2003.
Newsweek story: "We Are In Real Trouble"
Sept. 30, 2005
We don’t know exactly what nature of genetic change is necessary to make this type of human-to-human transmission possible. This particular type [of flu] has never been in our species—to our knowledge anyway. So there are two implications. That absolutely no one reading this article is immune. And, two, that we don’t know how it tracks in human beings. It is not a normal flu. For this flu to get into a form that would rapidly spread from one human to another or from a human to a towel or a cup or a doorknob or a subway pole to another human, we don’t know what would have to change. We also cannot answer another question that comes up. Will it still be killing 55 percent of all people if it changes? We don’t know if it has to forsake most of the virulence if it changes. We hope so, but we don’t know if that is the case…It could happen through a recombination event or a mutational drift event.
But there is a treatment made by Roche Pharmaceutical in Switzerland: Tamiflu. Is that the only one?
It’s not really a treatment. It doesn’t cure you, but it slows the ability of the virus to overwhelm your body and make lots of copies of itself and that buys you time to develop appropriate immunity and kill it off. Even then, you need to take it in the first 36 hours. You need to know how to tell the difference between a cold and the flu.(This tells me you need to be tested and Quidel will benefit.)
msnbc.msn.com |
