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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (43684)10/18/2005 7:34:23 AM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 

... it will always matter, I think.

If computers take over and exceed human intelligence and then we pass the "singularity", human capabilities in R&D on a national basis will not matter.... I am skeptical about the singularity and that it will happen in the first half of this century for sure. Economists see learning by doing and learning curves in specific areas such as decoding genomes, which Kurzweil sees as a generalized speeding up of technological change.


... I think events will go parabolic.

Exponential growth has that habit. Though in the end it stops being exponential :) The difference this time is the size of China, compared to say Japan, Korea etc. in the last round of catching up. Scientists are skeptics and economists are cynics on top of that, so we tend to be pretty conservative in predictions :P
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