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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 301.88-1.0%Jan 14 3:59 PM EST
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To: michael97123 who wrote (16327)10/18/2005 2:02:05 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (2) of 25522
 
Hi Mike,

I've seen the energy complex run over tech before.

One must keep in mind that the tech blowoff was a major distribution selloff.

It does take years to reaccumulate strong ownership in these stocks.

Ted Warren said you can't trust a breakout after a major distribution top until at least 6 years have gone by.We're not too far off that now.

What I liked about the tech cycle was the frequency at which it reoccurred. Nice tops were to be had in 95,97,and 99.

Now after a major distribution top we have consolidations with incremental steps up.

One feature of past consolidations is a final shakeout just before the industry goes up to a higher level of consolidation.

With utilizations reaching 90 % plus and a much broader array of new neat products,I believe we are about to increment up to new levels of consolidation and company profitability.

Any dip here will be a good opportunity ,excepting companies that are losing market share.

During the down cycles SCE with large hordes of cash MUST reinvest into the next new wave of equipment that surfaces to the top.

They all reserve the right to go broke, due to poor product innovation.Misspent R&D is unusual.

A past track record of properly spent R&D is what to look for.

I think this month is a great tiem to "ADD TO" on stocks that are dipping to new lows or better yet seem to be resisting the selloff.

I'm watching Cohu,Ter, and Acls for "Add TO' positions

Bob
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