I thought for many months that the operative pattern were the ED's on the major indices, which ended in August. On some, like $MID, it overshot, on others, like $INDU - the last wave was weak.
SPX the last 2 days tested its lower line from below, and was repelled.
NDX this morning came up to a critical resistance, offering an opportunity to short with a good risk / reward -- which I did... and posted that. The index hung out right under 1550 --- and about 3 points higher there was a good stop. Can't get any closer than that.
So, why should I worry about all this great number of counts and theories floating around? Theories are a dime a dozen... what's more important, imho, are setups with good R/R. At this time, I took some money off the table, and should be able to change my stops to breakeven or better.
As far as I'm concerned, the indices are (most likely) either still in the 4th - or already in 5th of 3(or C), looking from the August top.
As far as the excessively bearish sentiment is concerned -- that's a problem, but we should be very close to having a Wave 4 up, which could last for a few weeks and work off much of it. And then - after the 5th down - we would be ready for a seasonal rally ("large" Wave 2?).
....And my job is to try making some money and NOT get hurt - even in case I'm totally off the wall wrong.... ;) |
