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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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From: Patricia Trinchero	10/18/2005 11:19:51 PM
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0300 UTC 10/19/2005 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST #8 This is an independent product The latest recon report recorded 101 KT at flight level and an estimated pressure of 954 mb. Based upon this, Wilma is now a category 2 hurricane and is approaching major hurricane status. Infared satellite imagery shows a small eye with a very convective tight inner core. Cloud tops are as cold as -90 C. Wilma is likely to continue to rapidly strenghten over light shear, warm waters and high oceanic heat content. In fact, the SHIPS model brings Wilma to 132 KT in 48-60 h. This intensity forecast is very aggressive and above the guidance bringing Wilma to a category 5 hurricane in 36 hours or so. Given the current organization and environment and the history of storms this season, this does not seem very unlikely. Wilma's intensity is likely to fluctuate, as is with all strong storms, and weaken before making landfall on Florida due to increasing shear north of 23N, but a major hurricane is possible while impacting Florida. Wilma is tracking to the WNW near 8 kts, despite the persistent westward motion today, guidance continues to suggest a more northward component should develop. This track forecast closely follows the CONU which indicates a landfall in south Florida on Saturday. All residents of Florida, especially south Florida should closely montior the progress of Hurricane Wilma. Initial: 16.6N 81.8W 90KT 12 Hour: 17.3N 83.0W 110KT 24 Hour: 18.1N 84.1W 130KT 36 Hour: 19.1N 85.0W 140KT 48 Hour: 20.4N 85.7W 135KT 72 Hour: 22.8N 85.2W 125KT USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR 96 Hour: 26.2N 80.8W 100KT (inland) 120 Hour: 33.5N 71.5W 70KT Next Forecast: 0300 UTC Forecaster: Cangialosi

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