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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking
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From: redfish10/19/2005 10:07:30 AM
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Derek Ortt's latest:

1500 UTC 10/19/2005 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST #9

This is an independent product

Dropsonde pressures indicated 882mb, making Wilma the most intense hurricane ever. It may have briefly became more intense. However, latest imagery indicates a slight warming of the cloud tops. Initial intensity will bet set at 155KT. Weakening to a category 4 due to a likely eye wall replacement cycle is indicated today, followed by re-intensification into a 5 tomorrow. Long term, shear should increase, though Wilma is forecast to cross Florida as a 110KT category 3 hurricane. No change in intensity is forecast once into the Atlantic.

There is no change to the forecast reasoning. A south Florida landfall is likely in 72-96 hours. Long term, there should be a bending back to the left due to the tilt of the trough. Latest GFDL has a final landfall in Maine. I will accelerate the track once in the Atlantic, but not that much yet.

Wilma is moving in cyclonic loops and is expected to grow into a Katrina sized hurricane, or just slightly smaller. Therefore, do not focus on short term wobbles or just the motion of the eye.

Initial: 17.3N 82.8W 155KT
12 Hour: 18.0N 84.1W 130KT
24 Hour: 19.0N 85.2W 140KT
36 Hour: 20.5N 86.2W 145KT
48 Hour: 22.5N 86.3W 135KT
72 Hour: 25.0N 82.3W 115KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 29.0N 77.0W 75KT (crossed Florida)
120 Hour: 38.0N 70.0W 75KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

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He thinks it will exit into the Atlantic around Boca.
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