Another wrong read by Stratfor ... stratfor.com
Red China's Democracy White Paper
Oct 19, 2005
Summary
Beijing issued its first white paper Oct. 19 detailing the principles of democracy in China, which include a discussion of the progression of democratic ideals from the beginning of the People's Republic of China in 1949 and planned methods of implementing democratic reform in the future. The document indicates the Chinese government recognizes it must engage in political reform to ensure the continued dominance of the Communist Party. The release also represents another part of Beijing's efforts to mitigate both internal and external pressures in order to buy time to deal with pressing domestic issues.
Analysis
The Information Office of China's State Council released a white paper Oct. 19 outlining the principle of democracy as it applies to the People's Republic of China (PRC) and as conceived by the Chinese government and the Communist Party of China (CPC). The paper -- the first of its kind in the history of the PRC -- details the inception and development of democracy since the country's establishment in 1949 as well as democracy's future path.
The white paper indicates that Beijing recognizes it must make political reforms to maintain the superiority of the Communist Party. The release also represents another part of Beijing's efforts to mitigate both internal and external pressures in order to buy time to deal with pressing domestic issues.
Overall, the document indicates that China is moving toward a "socialist political democracy," which the government feels will show distinctively Chinese characteristics and will be suited to China's unique conditions. The plan contains several caveats, however. Importantly, the plan specifies that Chinese democracy is "a people's democracy under the leadership of the Communist Party of China" with centralism as the basic organizational principle, rather than a system allowing non-CPC groups or the population to have control over the functions of government -- a keystone of traditional Western-style democracy, in which no single party enjoys a political monopoly.
Several important assertions are made in the release. The 12-part paper -- released simultaneously in English to avoid the lengthy period of Western translations -- includes several topics that have traditionally caused the government and CPC numerous problems, including grassroots democracy movements in rural and urban areas, systems of ethnic and regional autonomy, and the respect and safeguarding of human rights within the country.
According to the paper, the political system will continue to be required to uphold the unity and leadership of the CPC, while also being conducive to social stability, economic development and improving the quality of life. It also must allow for the recognition of the unique advantages of a socialist system. In addition, the paper addresses several problems that should be overcome within the system, including "bureaucracy and corruption" in some areas, the lack of restraint and supervision over the use of power, the lack of people's management in state and social affairs, and violations of law that sometimes go unpunished.
The release of the white paper signifies the Chinese government's recognition that some political reform is necessary in order to maintain social cohesion and stability, and attempts to reassure a skeptical population that the government views the issue of political reform as important and worthy of attention. Essentially, the paper provides a road map toward further democratic reform, while giving the government the ability to carry out such reforms with Chinese patterns of government -- which to this point have concentrated heavily on a one-party system of rule, rather than assuming patterns established by other societies -- taken into account. The plan is contingent on moving forward in a way that will ensure stability and the regime's continuity.
The white paper's significance comes from its laying out the official Chinese government position on democracy for the first time, though it offers little new information. Democratic institutions, though little seen or noticed, have existed in China for decades. The government has flirted with democratic change on several occasions with varying results.
Actually, there are several political parties inside China, some allied with the CPC and others that are not involved with communist ideology at all. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) -- a body created before the PRC -- has evolved into a type of advisory council that includes representatives of all legal noncommunist parties. Likewise, both President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have recently made statements on the importance of democratic principles in China, as well as China's movement toward a socialist political democracy. Wen addressed a joint press conference with a visiting delegation from the European Union on Sept. 5, saying China was pressing on in an "unswerving way" toward democratic politics that would one day include direct elections, though Wen did not indicate who could be directly elected.
Internal government problems and issues facing the country -- some officially recognized and others not -- necessitate some political reforms that could include serious changes to the lower echelons of government. However, as Chinese history indicates, centralization of control has proved critical in ensuring the state's territorial and social cohesion. As a result, it is highly unlikely that the CPC would be willing to make any political changes that would remove it from the role of key driver of all national policy.
Instead, the release of the white paper and the increased rhetoric about democracy represent part of Hu and Wen's campaign to prove to the population that they are addressing critical problems inside the country -- problems that threaten to undermine their grasp on power. They also are gaining time and breathing room from the international community as they address such problems.
Economic problems caused by several decades of unrestrained and uncoordinated growth are beginning to seriously affect the social framework of Chinese society and directly impact the ability of the CPC to maintain order. In particular, the problems of unchecked corruption among local government officials and a massive income gap between the rich and poor -- with CPC members often on the comfortable side of this gap -- make a democratic system of government seem more attractive to a population growingly disaffected by such problems.
As such, Hu and Wen are mounting a campaign to show the people that these issues are being acknowledged by the Party, and will slowly but surely be addressed by the government. The white paper goes beyond that acknowledgement, however, and also serves as a partial warning to officials inside the government that corruption among government officials and other types of government mismanagement represent a part of the problems that must be addressed in the coming reforms. The reform road map, however, builds in the idea that the CPC should remain in control of the process, which constitutes an attempt to guard against the problems that have often accompanied the introduction of democratic reforms.
The Bush administration has actively pressured Beijing on a number of issues in the past, including the yuan's revaluation and North Korea. Though many of the issues have been moved to the back burner, the timing of the release of the democracy white paper is significant in that U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is in Beijing, where he will discuss China's allegedly substantial military buildup and lack of military transparency with officials.
As China seeks to maintain and increase its political and economic engagement with the West in order to maintain economic growth, it also must convince the world that its rise is nonconfrontational in order to maintain the internal stability needed to carry out economic and political reforms. And as Beijing continues to build political and economic alliances, its moves in a democratic direction could offer some enticement to potential allies, or at least remove some perceived obstacles to cooperation. In the context of the Rumsfeld visit, U.S. President George W. Bush's Nov. 19 visit to Beijing and the scheduled November resumption of the six-party talks regarding the North Korean nuclear weapons program, the official recognition of a need for democratic political reform in China could bring some of the breathing room from Western pressure Hu needs in order to deal with more pressing problems.
Copyright 2005 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.
|
