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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 393.24+1.1%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1310)10/21/2005 4:13:49 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (3) of 218431
 
We reached the point where demand out-stripped oil supply in 1978. Just a soon as people got used to it, oil prices collapsed.

Now we've reached the same point again and I can't wait to see what happens. You Wharf Rats had better get ready for a surprise.

As for refined products, not even one American refinery has been selling their products to India or China. People who believe we need to build new refineries in America, because of increased demand for refined products in India and China, are as crazy as they sound.

China has built new sour oil refineries, as well they should since their demand has increased so greatly and sour oil is all they can get their hands on.

America's slow and steady increase in demand for refined product has long been met with refinery expansion, while closing small inefficient refineries.

There has been a spike in demand for refined products from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but no oil company in their right mind would undertake a multi-billion dollar expansion over a six year period to expand refining capacity just to meet a temporary dislocation from the Bush Wars. If Bush thinks different, he can build a refinery himself in a military base as he ranted in his Sad State of the Nation speech.

The war in Iraq has also sharply reduced oil output due to sabotage. Expect to see oil prices decline for that reason alone when the Bush War ends
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