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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 393.24+1.1%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: Slagle who wrote (1431)10/22/2005 5:07:51 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (1) of 218434
 
You have suggested, "if peak oil isn't a real problem then isn't the over-priced stock market a good long-term investment?"

I admit I have re-phrased your question somewhat, and in doing so I have given you part of my answer. I currently own no stocks or real estate. I have of money in banks in Australia and Canada, and even here in America.

The U.S. consumer is horribly over-indebted. In 1996 Greenspan took an economy which needed the "good clean-out" a recession could have achieved, and turned it into the highly leveraged nightmare it is today.

Milton Friedman's wacky idea that "the problems caused by excessive debt can be solved with additional new debt creation" is so utterly false on its face that you wonder how desperate a person needs to be in order to believe something so obviously wrong. Yet many do.

When home prices fall below the value of their mortgages, we have a new bankruptcy law which will turn these home owners into Indentured Servants for five years when they go to hand their keys back to the bank. I have long suspected that any recession would be postponed with desperate measures until this law became effective on October 17, 2005.

That was almost a week ago, so now I expect a really major recession almost any time now. I think real estate and the stock market do not represent a good investment at this time.
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