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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 83.91+1.9%12:02 PM EST

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (69131)10/24/2005 2:14:56 AM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
I'm not really exuberant about this market Elroy.

I know, but your view on the market this year has always been based on the prior three months of trading. In other words, you are saying its a bear market today, but if the market moves up 10% in the next two months you'll then be saying its a good market. If that happens it will actually have been a good market starting TODAY, not when you finally come around. I don't think you use forward looking techniques enough.

I might be exuberant about MY STOCKS but that is an entirely different thing.

That's called a stock picker's market.

Didn't we just recently hit another 2 yr low on Cisco? Their business is, without a doubt, improving.

Well, in their last conference call they lowered forward revenue expectations, so at least things for CSCO were deteriorating relative to consensus expectations. But I do think CSCO is looking pretty attractive as a "safe tech bet" investment. Reasonable growth at attractive value. My main concern with them is I really have no certainty that they won't lower revenue expectations again when they report October, and that aint a recipe for share price outperformance.

I may buy some GOOG (like, 10 shares!) and hold it through the first week of January. It sure doesn't seem like its going to go down. Longer term, I agree with the people who say GOOG is already bouncing against the law of large numbers ceiling...
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