KERRY, IRAQ, AND HILLARY
The Plank blog
Today John Kerry--surely you remember him!--delivered a "major" address on Iraq policy at Georgetown. Kerry's thrust was that the U.S. occupation is now feeding the Iraqi insurgency, and must wind down soon.
The real struggle in Iraq--Sunni versus Shiia--will only be settled by a political solution, and no political solution can be achieved when the antagonists can rely on the indefinite large scale presence of occupying American combat troops.... [O]ur military presence in vast and visible numbers has become part of the problem, not the solution.
Kerry's near-term prescription is the withdrawal of 20,000 U.S. troops after the Iraqi elections in December. After that, it's not so clear:
The draw down of troops should be tied not to an arbitrary timetable, but to a specific timetable for transfer of political and security responsibility to Iraqis and realignment of our troop deployment. That timetable must be real and strict. The goal should be to withdraw the bulk of American combat forces by the end of next year. If the Administration does its work correctly, that is achievable.
To that end, Kerry called for a political solution that placates the Sunnis, a regional security conference that engages other Arab nations, a multinational force protecting Iraq's border, and a move to "put the training of Iraqi security forces on a six month wartime footing."
Worthy enough ideas, all. But some (a political solution) are already in the works. Others (regional conference) are a tad vague. And while it's unclear what a "six month wartime footing" entails, it's hard to believe the Bush administration has been dragging its feet when it comes to training Iraqis.
So in policy terms, Kerry hasn't really offered a very convincing solution to our (admittedly mind-warping) Iraq dilemma. As a political matter, however, it's more interesting. By talking openly about withdrawal timetables, Kerry has followed the lead of Democratic Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, who recently offered up a similar plan. Viewed through a 2008 presidential political lens, that places the two of them both on the fomenting left flank of Hillary Clinton, who continues to infuriate anti-war liberals with her stubborn stay-the-course position. As more and more Democrats adopt the Kerry-Feingold slow-withdrawal line, will Hillary be able to hold out? No one knows. But the answer may largely define the 2008 Democratic primaries.
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