BH, The point is from an investors' perspective. Not technological. I am of the opinion that a technology will always have another one toppling it or even making something better with what exists and it is not a sure bet over a long period of time.
I wrote the other day here that MSFT has peaked and that from here on will be only down hill. At least no one wrote back I'm crazy.
To make clear what I think, a few years back, a PC and its operating system was THE THING. Not anymore. There's already lots of them around and it is going to be like iron -the ones you iron your clothes with. Only societies at the very bottom of the barrel will lack them.
At this level, the money is made not by the star, but by the whole galaxy!!! Everything that gravitates around important an industry. When you consider the whole galaxy, the star is not much to worry about.
Let me explain:
The car was THE THING, but money is not made on cars. I mean, consistently in cars over a long period of time.
(I have to remind you that MQ, thinks QCOM is going to be a in a commanding position for a long period of time and consistently will be making money):
You have to look to the makers of all parts that composes a car. Then to all the money that goes in building and keeping roads. Then in the all the oil business that is used to power them. And the sports generated by the existing of cars. And the sponsorships that sustain motor sports see how far we are already from the car per se?
The highway patrol that fines people, the automobile clubs, the drive-ins (that came and went), you can see the whole moolah that gravitates around the car.
We can still give due respect for Henry Ford, Rudolph Diesel and others but the car is not THE THING.
Think long term: in 2020 QCOM will still be here. Will it matter?
It is end of 2005; 16 years ago there was this Apple vs. MSFT dispute. Does it matter today? See what 16 years can do to change things.
Coming back to the galaxy thing: Today, is Google, EBay, Amazon... and 1.000 more companies that will be built aorund ubiquitousness of PCs. That means the thing is getting so big that is no longer controlled by a duo.
And this doesn't mean INTL and MSFT will vanish. I'm not saying don't matter. I'm saying they are not THE THING. They are just part of the market.
Give them time enough, and one day they will be like Ford and GM...
QCOM is not THE THING as Ford and GM were not THE THING either. THE THING doesn't exist, if you consider the time dimension.
Perhaps makes sense to milk QCOM for all it is worth and them move the mney to the next THING and not park there forever.
TJ says that if you want to park your money, it is better to park it as gold. Like if one ask to be frozen to hyberbate and wake up in 2050, it would be better to be frozen with some gold around you than with QCOM shares. |
