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Technology Stocks : Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS)

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To: robert b furman who wrote (144)10/30/2005 3:45:55 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 195
 
So webcast stunk up the joint for at least Q4 - continued closure of Rockville plant writeoffs of about 2 million and waiting for Fabs to order,as utilization rates are over 90 and this unlike in the past not triggering Capex.

So we need to see the christmas season build a backlog of orders (I believe inventories going in will be very light - the result of very bearish mood at the present,energy and whatever,war,politics).

Still the big question out there is how does Optima MD and HD stack up on reliability and performance to Varians products.

Varian is the Best of Breed and more or less led the market to single wafer implants vs batch.

The goods news and trend out there is a universal acceptance that fabs are moving from batch to single wafer processing when going below (or at ) 90nm technology.

This seems to be true for both memory and logic.

Listening to Puma,they sound confident that Optima has some better features - this must be so as the existing ownerbase of past implanters certainly lies with Varian.

One must be better to change brands in a fab that is established.Most likely parts,maintenance, etc is reason enough to stick with the established maker.

Here is an article from Varian about a win in Japan's memory market "Elpida" bought multiple High Current implanters:

Message 21836725

So both say they have bragging rights - it appears Varian is out ahead of Acls as far as delivering ,while Acls is in evaluation of a new product stage.

So there is the crap shoot - who ahs the better machine?

It seems the whole world is going to what both are making - now it becomes a market share battle.

Whjat should happen here is Varian and Acls should merge - much like KLA and Tencor did in 98.

Then instead of discounting, they can consolidate and hold margins and take orders.

Since Acls is trading below book value($4.36) and cash value of $1.72 - that's not a bad idea at all!!
finance.yahoo.com

Stock selling for twice cash per share and below book value.

CEO is one of the largest holders - I like that,but mostly option candy - don't like that.

When the stock is below book value and is going down ,with no hope of profitability for 1-2 quarters - it doesn't get worse than that and is most likely a great average down safe buy.

BWDIK

Bob
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