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Technology Stocks : Wintel's Demise
MSFT 517.03-0.2%Nov 3 9:30 AM EST
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To: Punko who wrote (114)9/12/1997 9:28:00 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh   of 328
 
The problem with this kind of blue sky dreaming is that it ignores the existence of installed base. If one brings out a totally new kind of product and it becomes popular, then the market penetration and change to a new way of doing things can be pretty dramatic, but all this Java and NC hype is about something that is already here in many respects and already big, very big. Think how many years back people were predicting that it would only be a year or two before every home had a PC. Look how long that really took to happen. Think about the fact that the people most receptive to this kind of need already have bought PCs. Your best market is already saturated. Same thing in the corporate world. There is a lot of business to be had in upgrading, especially since Bill's boys keep swelling the size of the OS and applications so that old boxes need upgrading, but there is a counter-trend too. ComputerWorld has recently had some good articles on thrashing and the resistence that has come from even moving to Win95 because people are tired of having to sort it all out over and over and over again. They just want to get some work done. Already there is a lot of talk about Win98, who cares?

It may not take NCs to put a dent in the growth of MSFT, it may come from inertia.
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