Narotham,
well I didn't mean that CYMI declining would happen that soon. This strong bearish momentum itself forces to change me my probable CYMI entry point from $25-30 region to the $20 region. I know that CYMI at $20 post split means historic PE ratio at about 30, which would in turn give CYMI only a slight premium over the whole semi eqip sector, where average PE ratio is about 22 for historic PE.
As CYMI news drippled out, the fog cleared a bit and it appears my concerns where not overly wrong: CYMI got some after-sales problems which the company adresses with its CIP and Big5 projects. Don't get me wrong, this doesn't mean they would be selling less without those programs. Just that they institute those programs acknoledges some weakness of CYMI's behalf.
Also, the EUV-consortium seems to have shaken the market. This I don't see as a threat, rather as a chance. If DUV/EUV technology would help enable laser mfgrs. to bring the minimal gate size down to 0.13 micron, CYMI should profit in the longer run. But the market got this wrong. I think that around earnings time, CYMI's chances will be clarified. However, the stain of uncertainty is definitely over CYMI's neck.
Also, TA-wise speaking CYMI is under heavy distribution. That's a matter of fact, when a stock's volume explodes on big dips, like CYMI today. Like it or now, but w/o CNBC coverage, CYMI would have ended even lower, probably at $26-27 range....
Anyway, still bullish on CYMI midl-long term (!!)
CROSSY |
