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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: robert b furman who wrote (7251)	11/1/2005 10:19:10 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) of 33421

09:16 ET 10-year: unch..4.549%....GNMAs: unch....$-¥: 116.57....Euro-$: 1.1997 As the FOMC meets the futures market has already priced in full expectation for both a 25 bp hike today to a 4% policy rate and another 25 bp at the Dec 13 FOMC meeting. The February federal funds future contract trades at an implied rate of 4.45% or 80% odds for another 25 bp hike at Greenspan's final meeting on Jan 31 to leave a 4.5% policy rate. With an implied rate of 4.60% for the April contract the market is currently pricing in a halt (or pause) as Bernanke takes control at the Mar 28 FOMC meeting. The implied policy rates have risen since Bernanke was nominated a week ago -- despite the more centrist (or dovish) tone often discussed.

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