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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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From: LindyBill	11/1/2005 12:18:11 PM
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BATTLE STATIONS? DAVID FRUM'S DIARY I've been predicting that on Alito, Dems will huff and puff but in the end ... opt not to blow the house down. The big donnybrook everybody was expecting yesterday will (I think) in the end fail to materialize. Five reasons: 1) Dems don't have the votes to stop him. To make an effective fight, they'll have to filibuster. But it's a little hard to describe circumstances as "extraordinary" - or to condemn a nominee as somehow extreme or bizarre - when you yourselves voted unanimously to confirm him to the nation's second-highest courts. 2) Nor will a campaign of character-assassination like that practiced against Clarence Thomas be practical here. Not only is Alito's record clean, but there are a lot of Italian-American voters in up-for-grabs Pennsylvania who will resent it. 3) Besides which, in event of filibuster, personable, brilliant Judge Alito is exactly the kind of candidate who will embolden Republican moderates to join the rest of the party to vote for the constitutional option, a filibuster-override. 4) I think polls will soon tell us that this nomination is popular. For Dems, every day spent fighting on the losing side of this battle is a day they are not slamming the president on gas prices, Lewis Libby, and other genuine political vulnerabilities. They will soon figure out that this battle is the least politically lucrative one available to them - and decide that their interests are best served by bringing it to a quick end with a vote to confirm. 5) Democratic hopes for regaining the Senate are tied to defeating Sen. Rick Santorum in Pennyslvania. Do they really want to create opportunities for Santroum to remind Pennsylvania's socially conservative voters that a vote for Robert Casey Jr. is in fact a vote against parental notification and in favor of partial-birth abortion? My guess: After a week of fussing and some intense hearings, Alito goes on the bench with at least 65 votes and probably more like 70+. frum.nationalreview.com

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