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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (44600)11/1/2005 12:56:50 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
The commercial switcheroo is disconcerting if one is a bear, but of course it reflects last Tuesday position, and they've already really jammed the markets since. Unlike other futures, the equity COT is very volatile, and can change quickly. However, in general it looks like the Humpty inflationary boom trade of buying just about everything from bonds to energy to grains to metals, etc may be revived? Bares close watching, and more caution on anti-Humpty plays though. I'll be interested in this week's COTs on gold (for today) for instance.

The counter to this is the liquidity picture.
Message 21844445
Thursday FCB report will shed light on that, and if they are back big (but barely added to the auction yesterday in the face of large supply), might have to tone down the bear angle some. The Fed itself has been mostly backing rhetoric with action (less accomodation, or at least more neutral), and I have to consider that as well. Further a 4.27% return (and rising) on a T-Bill is superior competition to all the crap in the market and the prices paid for it. I'm trying not to get whipsawed the wrong way on every 1% drop and rally, but see your point, eyes wide open.
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