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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: russwinter who wrote (40525)	11/4/2005 12:41:39 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 116555

Darkness before the dawn? The bond timing newsletters I track at the Hulbert Financial Digest have never been more bearish than they are right now. Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Bond Newsletter Sentiment Index (HBNSI), which reflects the average exposure to the bond market among a subset of short-term bond timing newsletters. As of Thursday night's close, the HBNSI stood at minus 67.4%. That means that the average of the timers included in this sentiment index is recommending that two-thirds of the amount subscribers have allocated to the fixed income market should be invested on the short side of the bond market. That's an aggressive bet that the bond market will decline, and that interest rates will rise. There has been only one other time when the HBNSI dropped to as low a level as where it was Thursday night. That was early last April, very close to its low for the year. The 30-year Treasury bond proceeded to rally by nearly 7% between then and late June, which in the staid world of government bonds is a big deal. marketwatch.com{7F002CAC-FCD1-45EE-9D3A-5274CD70CF38}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbc

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