Flash in the Small Form-Factor Drive Pan
BY KIRTIMAYA VARMA, EDITIOR-IN-CHIEF
The small form-factor HDD industry is passing through the throes of a major change. HDD suppliers have traditionally faced competitive challenge from NAND Flash, but the high cost of the latter—as much as two times at 4 GB density—gave 1.8- and 1-inch HDDs a definitive advantage. NAND technology has evolved to the extent of offsetting this HDD advantage. Samsung is reported to have convinced Apple that its NAND products will match HDD pricing, and Apple has announced that its new version of iPod mini MP3 player will be based on NAND flash memory technology. iSuppli reports that Apple has booked 40 percent of Samsung’s NAND output capacity for H2 2005.
Initial iPod models employed HDDs. It is not clear whether Apple would discontinue using HDDs. It seems Apple will pursue a dual strategy, offering both Flash memory-based and HDD–based iPods, to keep the two types of memory makers in neck-to-neck race for lower price. Whatever that be, the HDD industry is due for major oscillations, and HDD makers planning production capacity rise should move cautiously.
HDD designers are faced with the daunting task of keeping HDD competitive against NAND Flash. For the time being, NAND Flash is taking on 2 and 4 GB HDDs on the price front. So a possible approach of HDD designers should be to offer HDD drives with higher capacities at NAND Flash price for 4 GB capacity. Some HDD vendors are working on 8 GB and 10 GB to compete with 4 GB NAND price.
Yet another approach could be to target new applications. Small form-factor drives will find increasing use in digital still cameras, camcorders, personal media players, handheld computers and automobile navigation systems. These CE products, and also a horde of emerging CE products with miniaturization as their hallmark, should provide interesting opportunities for HDDs.
The coming months should see great activities in the 1-inch drive market, both in HDD, with vendors such as Seagate, Hirachi GST, WDC, GS Magic and Cornice in the driver’s seat, as well as in Flash, with Samsung in the lead. |
