Gerald, so let me get this right.
You are saying that ALYD, currently with 170 programmers, can produce:
[ 170 x 250,000 LOC per month x 12 months = 510 million LOC.
[ at $.35 per LOC that comes out to $178.5 million in revenues without having to add another single programmer! ]
So, in reality since Gruder wanted to avoid criticism, he purposely underestimated ALYD's true revenue potential for 1998 by over $120,000,000
If as you say ALYD only need 42 ! programmers to meet 1998 est revenues and 84 programmers to meet 1999 est revenues, then do they need to hire an additional 150 programmers ?
With 325 programmers (175 current and 150 additional) ALYD could produce:
[ 325 x 250,000 LOC per month x 12 months = 975 million LOC !
[ at $.35 per/LOC that comes out to $341 million in revenues. !]
Once again, are you saying that Gruder was so worried about criticisms that he underestimated 1999 revenues by as much as $240 million !
If ALYD only needs 42 people and 84 people to meet 1998 and 1999 projected earnings, then why in the heck do the currently have 175 people with plans to add an additional 150 ?
If Gruder purposely underestimated 1998 and 1999 revenues, because he was worried about criticism, would he truly be such a fool to underestimate the numbers by as much as 240%
I have head of being conservative, but that is absurd!
Also, if ALYD only needs 42 programmers to convert 10.5 million LOC per month
(42 x 250,000 Loc per month)
Then why are they not going to be profitable FYE 1997 ?
These 42 programmers should be able to produce 31.5 million LOC in Q4 of 1997
(10.5 million LOC per month x 3 months )
That would give them a Q4 revenue of over $11 million
(31.5 million LOC x $.35 per line )
Yet, ALYD stated that they would not be profitable in 1997 and they estimated FYE earnings to be between $10 to $15 million.
Remember your figures are only using 42 people and it has clearly been established that ALYD has currently approx. 175 and they still say they wont be profitable in 1997 |
