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Technology Stocks : Silicon Valley Group
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (965)9/13/1997 2:06:00 AM
From: Shakush   of 2946
 
Zweig's laughable analysis:

Assuming Zweig says what he means and that I read it right, he uses statistical methods focused primarily on performance and necessarily to a lesser extent, abstract measurements of sentiment, and then publishes the results. SVGI simply emerged - nothing personal here.

He attributes at least part of his (almost pathological) aversion to risk to the weight of responsiblity he feels toward trusting clients and pointedly states he hasn't the time or inclination to consider the merits or potential every business may or may not have and prudently recommends the use of stops.

Finacially SVGI's recently been a dog. The 200+ p/e probably limits near term upside potential. The company rescinded a buyback before purchasing a single share. Volume has been declining since after the runup following the buyback announcement. Who's been selling? Who's been buying? When does the SEC publish the Form 144's?.

Sentimentally, considering herd behavior, one or two possibly leading to several of the 13 analysts covering the stock could downgrade it and that could possibly culminate in the funds (holding 60% of the stock) taking it out back and shooting it.

But life is full of risks and that (being short) is why I would like to hear the bull case.


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