The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: ild who wrote (44928)	11/7/2005 2:44:04 PM
From: Mr.Creosote	Read Replies (2) of 110194

>>following your logic the market will never go down. That's not correct. The market will go down at some point when all of the things Russ is talking about start to matter. It doesn't help anybody to always be in a bearish posture and never change his outlook. Of course real estate inventories are up, of course our net savings rate is close to zero, of course corporate profit growth rates are slowing, and of course our debt level is historically high. But most americans still have well paying jobs and as long as they do they can continue to service their debt AND pay for goods and services they need or want thereby keeping the economy going. My own time frame is 6 months out. Just like many americans I have some stocks, some bonds, some real estate, and some cash (sorry no gold). The question is what to do right now. It's a question of asset allocation. The bears say the risks are high and stock valuations are too rich for what's coming. OK, you sell your stocks and real estate and with the proceeds you buy ... what? T-bills? Gold? Or keep it in cash with Ben Bernanke at the helm? None of the alternatives look good at this time. The lack of investment alternatives is a problem facing us all. Most americans will not liquidate their portfolios to buy foreign assets they know nothing about. As long as people have jobs and can pay their bills, the extreme bearish posture is not warranted. So keeping an eye out for serious drop in employment or wages is very important going forward. Also important is to pay attention to market action for clues. Some day the market will dip and not rebound. That's the clue we need. Right now however not only are the dips bought aggressively but the transports are leading over the industrials and nasdaq100 is leading over sp500. This does not support the bearish argument at all. I am very bearish over the long term but this is a time when the "active players" who move markets are focused entirely on their monthly and quarterly returns. We have to respect market action because we don't want to lose our money by being invested too early in bearish positions. As for Hussman I too think he is very smart and I do read his weekly comments but he (or anyone else for that matter) doesn't have a clue where the market will be three months out. (The fact that he is not yet exposed to the long side doesn't mean he won't do it at higher levels.)

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next