Immunex Message Board - Msg: 2187041

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Biotech / Medical : Immunex

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To: The Thrifty Investor who wrote (89)	9/13/1997 12:45:00 PM
From: shdu	of 656

some comments on the message by "The Thrifty Investor": >>Asthma drugs can cost around $50 per month and there islots of >>competition. It is not unreasonable to expect Immunex to make $600 * >>1.5 million = $900 million in revenues * 50% profit margin = $450 >>million in profit. I believe this assumption of Embrel revenue is too low. Rheumatoid arthritis is indeed a very serious disease. I've seen many sad patients who would gladly pay over $10,000 a year for any drug that can improve their dire condition significantly. But there is no such drug. So they become disabled and silently perish in agonizing pain. Unlike the AIDS activists, they are inherently inactive. So people don't realize there is a much larger population of severe arthritis patients than AIDS patients. I think a more reasonable number would be $70001.0 million = 7 billion in revenue30% profit margin = 2.1 billion in profit. >>$450 million / 40 million shares gives an $11.25 mature EPS. That would be 2.1billion/40million=$52.5 EPS >>Add to this a nice pipeline and by the year 2000 this company >>could be worth about $200 per share. with a PE of 30 on $52.5EPS, it will be $1575 per share within five years. >>DLJ gave a 1 year target price >>of $120 on IMNX today. I don't belive in a second that the analyst said what he really thought. One of the analyst cried "Staggering Profit". $120 per share price certainly does not reflect that "staggering Profit". >>This is the second time I've owned IMNX. I owned the shares back in >>the 1992-1993 timeframe and enjoyed a nice runup back >>then.Hopefully, my pleasant experience will be repeated. I hope that I had accepted the job offer from IMNX last year. Oh, well. Sam

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