Re: QDEL's losing money. That's not true. QDEL has been earnings positive since 2001, per S&P. Yes, they lost money in Q1 and Q2, but they are forecast to be positive this year. Per Yahoo, EPS estimates are for .25 this year, up from .20 90 days ago. They recently did .02 for Q3, meeting expectations. Thomson Financial shows a forward PE for QDEL under 20 and a PEG under .70.
Besides, you're comparing an apple to an orange, as QGEN and QDEL are in entirely different industries, biotech vs. diagnostic substances.
One is the 5th largest molecular diagnostics company and the other is the number one rapid point-of-care test company. The charts look quite different, too:
finance.yahoo.com
I am more interested in the future for QDEL, not the past. It's working through its problems, as I have posted, and I am encouraged by many things. One concern seems to have been eliminated: U.S. distributor confusion created by the past intellectual property litigation with Inverness.
I believe QDEL will be successful with or without Cramer's plug and the bird flu. Look what they announced recently and look at the market potential:
August: Study Validates Sensitivity of Quidel Rapid Test to Detect Bacterial Vaginosis;
Condition Accounts for over 10 Million Physician Office Visits in the U.S. Annually.
September: Quidel Joins Fight for Early Detection of Colon Cancer . This FDA-cleared and CLIA-waived test will be marketed to healthcare professionals as the QuickVue® iFOB test. We believe the immunochemical fecal occult blood test category represents a large market opportunity for us, as over 50 million fecal occult blood tests are sold annually through medical/surgical distributors in the U.S. alone. In addition, current Medicare reimbursement rates awarded immunochemical fecal occult blood tests, as compared to the current Guaiac based fecal occult blood tests, are significantly higher since iFOB tests have no dietary or medicinal restrictions and exhibit higher clinical sensitivity. We anticipate launching the QuickVue® iFOB test in November 2005.
September: New partnerships. "Quidel is poised to advance the development of markers in the field of bone health and osteoporosis. These alliances provide a gateway for Quidel to fuel and further expand its growth and development in the global bone health industry, by tapping into new, international markets and sales opportunities."
October: Quidel's Flu Test Sensitivity Validated at 96% for Type A Influenza; Studies Provide Reassuring Data for Patients This Flu Season and Promising Data for Support of Avian Flu Surveillance. Total Revenues up 47%; Worldwide Product Sales up 58%
November: Based on recent information provided by our Japanese distributor, the significant quantities of our influenza products previously existing in our Japanese distribution channel have been significantly reduced. Accordingly, we expect to record significant sales of our influenza A+B test in Japan during the fourth quarter of 2005. As of June 30, 2005, our influenza products have an estimated 17% market share in Japan and 64% market share in the U.S., where we are the market leader. |
