Glenn,
Good to see you again. I think the stock dropped this week because we didnt have your posts here to prop it up. Carl Rohman started a new thread, ASND Discussion Only, while you were gone. No quotes, just discussion. You should add it to your bookmarks if you haven't done so already (along with ASND News and, if you want ASND Traders).
I don't know where the bottom is, here. I'm resigned, now, to waiting it out. The stock is on sale (someone pointed out that the last time it traded this low it had 1/3 the net income or earnings it has now)and I'm not going to sell into the sale. If it drops to 30 or lower, I would average down again substantially.
There may be no turnaround until October. Window-dressing for the quarter is over in 2 weeks, then the institutions can load up again (holdings are down to almost 50% now).
Earnings report is out on 10/11, so the uncertainty until then may keep ASND sinking or in turmoil, at least. Someone on the thread said he spoke with an ASND sales director who said the quarter would be flat at best. At this point, flat earnings of 31cents would be good, as would a miss by a penny. Still, November tax-selling may hold the stock down until December.
I'm wondering now if the certification process by new customers (by, say, NTT and the large Euro customers) is what is slowing sales and/or contract announcements. Certification is an expensive process (I'm familiar with it), but when it is over, the announcements (maybe in November or December) can be made and then were off to the races. (Tiny ISPs don't certify, but I should think the big boys damn well better). Any announcements made in November might help offset the effect of tax sales.
There you have it. I kind of hope the stock stays depressed through 10/11, then works its way up from there. I wouldnt want to get a false start on the upward move.
All in all, this is close to a billion dollar company. Soon, sales will exceed that amount. The stock therefore is worth more than zero (which, at 2 1/2 points lost per day, it will be at in 14 days).
Gary Korn
|
