The Battle for the Exurbs
By RUY TEIXIERA
Washington — For some time now, conservatives have tended to see America's exurbs - those fast-growing counties at the fringes of metropolitan areas populated by legions of young families - as a source of Republican strength that will, over time, turn the Democrats into a permanent minority party. George W. Bush's strong showing in the exurbs in 2004 seemed to validate the thesis. When it comes to understanding exurban voters, Republicans just seemed to "get it."
But do they really? In the Virginia governor's race, Jerry Kilgore - a Republican who ran a bruising, culture-war-driven campaign against his Democratic opponent, Timothy Kaine - lost quintessential exurban Loudoun County, one of the fastest growing counties in America, by 51 percent to 46 percent. In contrast, John Kerry lost the county to Mr. Bush in 2004 by 56 percent to 44 percent. And even Mark Warner, Mr. Kaine's Democratic predecessor, lost Loudoun in 2001.
The same pattern can be seen in neighboring Prince William County, where both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Warner went down to defeat, but where Mr. Kaine pulled out a victory. Given that Mr. Kaine dominated Democratic strongholds like suburban Fairfax County, carrying it by 60,000 votes - a far wider margin than either Mr. Kerry or Mr. Warner were able to manage - Republicans needed big wins in Loudoun and Prince William to take back the governor's mansion.
So where were the exurbs when the Republicans really needed them? The answer is simple: far from "getting" exurban voters on a deeply psychological level, Republicans have misinterpreted their past success in these areas as evidence that these voters endorsed and wanted an anti-government, socially conservative agenda. But that was never a warranted assumption, either then or now.
In reality, exurban voters are tax-sensitive and concerned about government waste, but not ideologically anti-government. They tend to be religious and family-oriented, but socially moderate in comparison to rural residents. They are not anti-business, but they do hold populist attitudes toward corporate abuse and people who game the system. And they worry as much or more about public education as they do about moral values.
That's the real exurban voter. No wonder Jerry Kilgore couldn't connect. He ran a campaign on cultural wedge issues like the death penalty and illegal immigration when exurban and most other Virginia voters were looking for solutions on education, transportation and health care.
As Representative Tom Davis, a moderate Republican from northern Virginia, put it last week, the Republican emphasis on cultural issues may be popular with rural voters, but if "you play to your rural base, you pay a price," namely by alienating voters in suburbs and exurbs. If Republicans continue to pursue an ideologically anti-government agenda that compromises government services while taking a hard line on social issues, they can have every expectation of shrinking margins among these voters.
What would shrinking margins among exurban voters do to the Republican Party? To begin with, it would take away one of the few fast-growing constituencies for Republicans. And it would greatly reduce their margin for error in more Democrat-friendly inner suburbs and urban areas - places like Fairfax County.
And it would mean that they would have to do even better in rural areas, which might lead them to rely even more heavily on cultural wedge issues, which would make them perform even worse in exurban and suburban areas, which would make them ... well, you get the picture.
Does this mean the Democrats now have the advantage among exurban voters? Not at all. But it does mean that these voters are up for grabs, especially now that Mr. Bush's special status as leader of the war on terrorism has been eroded.
Smart Democratic campaigns that offer solid solutions to the everyday problems of exurban residents, present a moderate stance on social issues and seem culturally comfortable with the exurban way of life can have every expectation of performing well among these voters. Who knows? They might even win.
Ruy Teixeira, a fellow at the Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress, is the co-author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority."
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