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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: c-hl who wrote (8375)	11/14/2005 10:43:33 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) of 12411

Today is trading day number 628 without a 2% down day. These occured once every 9 days for the SP in the late 90-s/early 00-s. Thus, the probability of such occurence by chance alone is 0. There are 2 scenarios: 1) the market is heavily manipulated on every downturn by the someone 2) there is a lot of put selling, and the market is extremely complacent. Maybe both. This statistical anomaly, and quite a few other anomalies, is why I suspect when we finally break down, we will break down hard.

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