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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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From: redfish11/15/2005 8:44:56 AM
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Energy prices push Oct. PPI up 0.7%
Core rate falls 0.3% on drop in autos, food

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:31 AM ET Nov. 15, 2005
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale prices increased a greater-than-expected 0.7% in October as energy prices continued to rise, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

The core rate of the producer price index, meanwhile, fell 0.3% in October, due to falling prices for autos, trucks, clothing and food. It was the largest decline in core prices in 30 months.

The 0.7% gain in the PPI was much greater than the flat reading expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The 0.3% decline in the core rate was lower than the 0.1% gain expected.

The PPI data will keep the heat on the Federal Reserve to maintain its "measured pace" of increases in short-term interest rates. Fed officials have said inflation remains their greatest concern. Core prices remain well behaved, despite growing pressure in earlier stages of production.

The PPI is now up 5.9% in the past 12 months, down from 6.9% last month. The core PPI has risen 1.9% in the past year, down from 2.6% last month.

The PPI increased 1.9% in September, while the core PPI rose 0.3%.

The PPI report will be overshadowed, by the October consumer price index, to be released on Wednesday. Economists expect the CPI to rise 0.1% in October, with core prices up 0.2%

Price pressures remained strong further back in the production pipeline. Prices for intermediate goods destined for further processing increased 3%, including a 9.3% gain in energy prices and hefty gains in chemicals, plastics, steel and construction materials.

The core intermediate PPI rose 1.2% in October, the largest gain in 25 years. The year-over-year increase rose to 4.3% from 3.5% last month.

Crude goods prices increased 6.7%, despite a 1.2% decline in basic industrial materials prices. The crude PPI is up 31.5% in the past year.

Energy continued to be the story in October, despite falling gasoline prices. Finished energy prices rose 4.1% in the month.

Prices for wholesale residential electricity soared a record 2.9%, while prices for residential natural gas rose 12.7% and home heating oil prices jumped 12.3%.

Outside of energy, the picture was more benign. Auto prices fell 3%, the largest decline in four years. Much of the decline was due to the statistical imputation of quality changes, especially improved emission controls. Sticker prices also declined.

Food prices fell 0.1% as egg prices plunged 25.2%.

Capital equipment prices fell 0.2%.
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