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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (45547)	11/15/2005 1:06:34 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (4) of 110194

the crisis that everybody fears is never the crisis that actually happens. Heinz sure likes these hyperbolic statements. like his "death warrant has been signed on Google" proclamation about 120 points ago. unfortunately, his blanket aphorisms are full of bedbugs. there is no magic Crisis Fairy out there who ensures that a crisis will not come to pass if only enough people worry about it. New Orleans is something many people "feared" but it did happen. many people feared the stock market would crash and it did happen. many people feared GM would fall apart and that is in the process of happening, along with FNM, and now of course the housing market. thankfully many feared crises do not come to pass, which indicates that crises are fairly rare events and difficult to predict. but there is no reason to think that the mere recognition of a potential crisis due to "warning signs" invokes a supernatural mechanism which prevents occurrence. it seems particularly bizarre that Heinz brings out this aphorism based on the mild winter and "crisis averted" for natural gas. as if fear of a harsh winter somehow causes a mild winter to occur.

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