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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (45554)	11/15/2005 2:06:29 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) of 110194

To say that some people have won by being good instead of lucky is not news and doesn't mean anything to anyone. In the markets we have losers and we have winners as measured by their risk-adjusted returns. Today's winners are usually tomorrow's losers. Some of the losers may know a lot more than the winners but the fact is that they still lost. You're only as good as your last trade. Some of the winners may not know what they are doing but they still won. The women don't care how you got it. They only care about whether they can get it out of you. We do not know who amongst the winners won by skill and who won by luck. But in trying to find out who really knows the biz I'rather search amongst the winners rather than the losers. Why not search for investments that will win? In either case most of Hussman's points make sense to me and that's why I read him. If he makes you money, you are advised to follow him. You said you know the biz because you've been a hedge fund manager. I've worn all pro hats and have known all types in the biz. Running money doesn't mean you know the biz. You can know all about the biz and not make a dime and you can know nothing about the biz and make loads. It helps to know things. How do you even know that "you know the biz"? I don't even know why I stay in the biz, but I do know all about how it works in monotonous boring professional detail. Maybe I'm unique in that respect. Who else wants to chase down all these endless silly regulations promulgated by SEC and the exchanges? I have to do it because the changes profoundly affect the machinery I've developed to monitor the markets. In my view those "knowing the biz" are likely to have won than lost and that's why I think Hussman may be one of those who "know the biz". He neither knows the biz nor does he know the areas addressed in his article. What he has is a good NY whisper circuit. With that one doesn't need to know anything. One only needs to do some minor evaluation of the whispers. Then one is playing the "information stream game" where the information may be specious, but one is already out of a successful position by the time the truth is revealed. This is a very popular technique. It takes a large line though to be able to deliver the soft dollar commish to keep the whispers coming. Cutting down successful people like Hussman in public boards like this one is a personality characteristic usually associated with the losers. Does that make you a loser?

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