The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Micawber who wrote (44682)	11/16/2005 12:34:20 PM
From: Incitatus	Read Replies (2) of 306849

It reiterated first-quarter earnings guidance of 90 cents to 95 cents a share. Analysts expected more: 99 cents a share. The guidance reflects a backlog totaling $5.8 billion at Sept. 30, up 28% from a year ago. While no disaster, Horton's guidance comes about a week after rival Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) spooked the market by cutting its own 2006 earnings estimate due to delays in home deliveries. That's an unmitigated disaster. A knockout punch to Marcin's thesis. Horton admitted that the future is looking worse, and will have to warn shortly, then warn again, then warn again, and then miss next quarter. That's not the kind of stock you want to own. You want stocks that beat expectations, not ones that keep expectations artificially high while the smart money is selling, then hit you with the bad news when the stock's price is much, much lower.

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