Ray
Okay, here is one that I've owned FOREVER!
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60]&pref=G
Note that the gaps always got filled regardless of the moving averages.
Saying that FA is built into the TA was, maybe in the old days, when EVERYBODY but retail knew something was coming. Back in the day, that is why we had a pick of the week...scanning for stocks that had sudden volume spikes with less than 10% gain on the day, followed by a couple of low volume days. If the scan worked out the trade was nearly always good for 20 to 30 percent, sometimes more. If the stock was not overbought at the point we announced it. BUT, those were before the days of Fair Disclosure, Sarbanes Oxley and the like.
Now, like FNSR in early Sept, no one knew that the company was going to get 12 million even after the 60 million cash buy of another company. That would have been a ringer for the arb. players, but they come up with the 12 million and the arbs got killed...no FA built in there. The arbs had to cover and the buyers came in.
I will not use ALAN as there is a force greater than TA moving the stock, I've explained it before and it will continue until the seller is out of stock. CDIC had the same problem back in 2001...all the good stuff was there but there was no cost basis seller. I held the stock 2 years, averaging down at 20% intervals..in 2003 CDIC bought up the last of the sellers shares and the stock doubled from my orginal purchase of 3.25...the averaged down shares were more than double. The TA said the stock was toast..the FA said wait it out.
Ken |
