"Thanks Ken .. FA is already built in to the TA Chart."
I've been watching this discussion with some surprise that the TA guys have doubts about the science of it all.
Would a comprise hypothesis suit? Known events, like earnings, are forecast, and there is a basis for believing that consensus is priced in; and therefore shows in TA. Unknown events, like clinical trials data, are forecast with far less reliability. Random events, like earthquakes are not forecast and not priced.
Further, the fewer followers of a company, as with small-caps or micro-caps, the more likely that information issues in leaky fashion. Thus, more likely to show in TA than in the news. Not necessarily deliberate leaks, but the information which comes out is not in the headlines available to everyone.
The point is that there are many degrees of consensus which inform TA. It's not an all-or-nothing proposition, but more of a continuum of relative certainty. If this is not right, tell me what I'm missing. |
