Thoughts from Todd...
Todd’s Survival Index
So you want to know how you’ll do if TSHTF. OK. I’ve put together an index that covers the basics. There are ten categories and each category is worth a maximum of ten points for a total of 100 points. You can decide how many points assures your survival.
Let me add that although the questions focuses upon NBC/debt as triggers, peak oil and natural gas could be substituted for them. Further, it is unimportant whether we are speaking of individuals and families or groups.
I tried to take those categories that always show up when survival is discussed, with the exception of PMs or things to barter, and provide a framework within which they can be discussed. My rationale for excluding PMs/barter is that I have what most people would want in an emergency, societal collapse or in the aftermath of a war. I cannot envision a circumstance where I would be interested in your gold and I have all the stuff I need. I think this would be true of other people in similar circumstances.
In order of importance (IMO), they are: NBC/ Fallout; Water; Skills, Equipment and Tools; Hordes; Food; Debt; Shelter; Heat; Power; Transportation.
NBC/Fallout
Give yourself one point for each 25 miles you are distant from an area that might be nuked.
Commentary: This question assumes that you have taken the time to review blast and fallout maps. It would have been nice to have had this in two separate sections since the distances for each are different but then I would have run over ten questions. The truth is that if NBC and fallout could be a concern then you aren’t serious about survival in the first place.
Water
10 points – you can supply all the water you need for personal and agricultural use.
5 points – you have a one-month supply in secure containers.
0 points - you plan on using the water heater or toilet tank.
Commentary - Water is the lifeblood of survival. For those who don’t know, you will absolutely, certainly die within two weeks (one week is more likely) if you don’t have water.
Skills, Equipment and Tools
10 points – You have the skills, equipment or tools necessary to provide for all your needs.
5 points – You can provide for some of your needs but may lack many skills and equipment.
0 points – You have no skills, equipment or tools.
Commentary: Why rank this number three in order of importance? Because you will not survive without them in the mid to long term. So, what kind of skills do I mean? Hunting/fishing/trapping; construction; food production; timber falling; mechanics/equipment repair; welding/blacksmithing; sewing. In other words, all of those skills most people rely upon others to accomplish today.
But these must be skills you have practiced not simply a book or computer file. For example, I have a textbook on emergency surgery. I also know what the inside of body looks like from field dressing game. But there is no way I would consider emergency surgery a personal “skill”.
However, there is a hidden assumption – that raw materials will be available to utilize these skills to make necessary things locally. I believe raw materials are the Achilles’ heel of almost every survival plan I have ever seen. People seem to make two assumptions: First, that there will be trade so that raw materials (or, perhaps, finished goods) can be acquired from some other area. Second, that all problems are temporary and that they will be resolved in a matter of months if not a few years. I believe this is naïve.
Take my case: I live about 200 miles north of San Francisco. In a global war SF is going to be nuked. Besides wiping out the city and the surrounding oil refineries, the fallout plume will drift toward Sacramento and close I-5, the main north-south road in the state. Further, Santa Rosa, a city north of SF, is also likely to be nuked. These two blasts will effectively isolate northern California for a lifetime. In other words, if you don’t have “it” at your place, you’re never going to have it!
Here is a mind game I like to play: Location – the boondocks. The family – 8 people (2 children, 2 parents, 2 grandparents, 2 great-grand parents). The expectation is that they will not leave their location for 100 years. They have a 20’x40’ building and unlimited funds to purchase raw materials or finished goods. What would they chose to store for this 100 year period?
Here are some of the things I would store:
Fertilizer – I’d use a 20’x20’ area (3,200 cubic feet) and pack it floor to ceiling with something like Plantex 30-30-30 with trace minerals plus many bags of a calcium containing fertilizer such as calcium nitrate, sulfate or phosphate, maybe even slacked lime. This would allow about 5 bags of Plantex per person per year for 100 years. Why devote so much space to fertilizer? Simple. You can’t take off a crop without depleting the soil and cutsy-pie stuff like biodynamics and permaculture won’t hack it. The fertilizer would be used to supplement my soil fertility program.
Canning lids – The standard is 100-200 quarts per person per year. Taking 100 quarts, this requires about 100,000 canning lids for 100 years. 100,000 canning lids will require 60 cubic feet (1cu in/lid in boxes of 12 lids each).
Eye glasses – Lots of drugstore eyeglasses.
Clothing – A lifetime supply of industrial-strength polyester pants, shirts, etc. such as Ben Davis stuff. Producing clothing takes an inordinate amount of land, resources and time. It’s far easier to simply buy and store what is required. The clothes won’t take up that much room.
Bolts of cloth and thread – these would be used to patch clothing to extend its life.
Boots and shoes – Same deal as clothing.
Detergents – A couple (?) of drums of dry, industrial-strength stuff.
Engine oil – A couple of drums of synthetic oil. I don’t know if we’d still be using engine-powered equipment but the oil doesn’t take that much space.
Solvents – Things such as MEK, acetone, isopropyl alcohol. Maybe 5 or 10 gallons each.
Lamp mantels – I’m planning on lighting with wood gas or alcohol. Were I to use alcohol, I’d also include wicks.
Steel – Probably some plates and rods of various sizes
Blacksmith’s coal – Maybe a couple of hundred pounds.
Replacement tools/parts – Things such as saws wear out.
There is still a lot of room left for more stuff but my list is getting too long for this thread. My point is that it that it makes more sense to simply store stuff rather then acquiring the raw materials to make stuff.
And, this mind game especially applies to groups. In fact, I believe it is more important to groups then individuals/families because a dense population requires more concentrated, high quality resources.
Hordes
10 points – I’m in the middle of nowhere and have to come in by horse
5 points – we’ll wipe them out as fast as they show up
0 points – my neighbor’s house is only ten feet from my house
Commentary - The argument is always made that the city hordes will head for your safe area and wipe you out. This is a judgment call. It can certainly be argued that no place is safe from hordes.
Food
10 points – you can produce all the food you need forever.
5 points – you can produce most of the food you need but must rely upon game for the balance.
0 points – can’t produce any food at all.
Commentary - My thrust here is really toward long-term food production rather than food you might store as preps. I want to make a point: being able to produce food means that you currently have the land on which to produce it and water for irrigation in addition to actually having the seed and/or animals in your possession. None of this, “Well, I know I could grow food if I had to” stuff.
Debt
10 points – debt-free
5 points – can repay debt with a lower income or can pay it off with other assets.
0 points – require current income to pay debt.
Commentary – In some situations, debt might be ranked number one. It’s a judgment call as to whether the economy will collapse before global war.
The requirement to repay debt is unlikely to be waived permanently even in an emergency, although it might be postponed. And, yes, the PTB could still confiscate your fully paid for property.
Shelter
This is a judgment call. Clearly if you are on the sixth floor of an apartment you are in worse shape then someone in a single family house in suburbia who in turn is worse off then a single family house in the boondocks who in turn is probably less secure then a hunter-gatherer living in a tent or Hogan.
Heat
10 points – you can supply your own heat (firewood or whatever)
5 points – you can supply most, but not all, of your heat for most of the winter
0 points – you cannot supply any heat
Commentary - Obviously there are times of the year when you don’t need heat and there are areas where you can survive without any heat.
Power
10 points – you don’t need any power
5 points – you can power basic “necessities”
0 points – you really need power but can’t produce any
Commentary – Let’s face it, people have gotten along without electricity or natural gas/propane (for a fridge) for thousands of years. They used springhouses, cold cellars, caches (in winter) and so on. They got their water from springs, ponds or rivers. They went to bed early by the light of a fire or oil lamp.
To me the real key is being able to say, “Well, if the inverters died, we can just move everything from the refrigerator to the spring house.”
Transportation
10 points – you don’t need to go anywhere
5 points – you have a horse or vehicle converted to wood gas or can walk
0 – you are dead meat without vehicular transportation
Commentary – I live in the boondocks and, since I can provide for our needs, I don’t have a need to travel in an emergency. However, most people will have a need for transportation at some point either because they cannot supply their necessities or because of NBC.
So that’s it. I got an 87 when I went through the questions. This was mainly due to the possibility of a city 120 miles south of me being nuked, although fallout due to the wind isn’t a problem. I also downgraded myself in the hordes category. I think it is unlikely that hordes will show up (but it’s possible) since we’d fell trees across the roads but you never know so I gave myself a 5 for this category. I also shaved off some points in the power category. I don’t have a springhouse or cold cellar - although a cold cellar wouldn’t take me much time to put in.
If someone had a lot of time, it would be easy to expand this short survival index. However, what I wanted to accomplish was to offer a basis for thinking seriously about the unthinkable. |
