DJ ICSG Forecasts 2005 Copper Supply Deficit But 2006 Surplus
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
The global supply/production deficit for refined copper is expected to narrow
to about 120,000 metric tons in 2005 from around 840,000 in 2004, according to
a report released Wednesday by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
Meanwhile, in 2006, growth in production is expected to outpace an
anticipated increase in demand, resulting in a projected "modest" surplus of
around 300,000 tons.
Preliminary projections indicate "a more modest surplus" may continue into
2007, the ICSG said. It noted, however, that after three years of production
deficits, global exchange inventories of refined copper are at their lowest
level in more than 30 years.
The ICSG released the data after holding its 26th regular meeting Tuesday in
Lisbon, Portugal. Government delegates and industry advisers from most of the
world's leading copper-producing and using countries met to discuss key issues
affecting copper globally.
A consensus view on the world balance for refined copper production and use
was developed by the statistical committee.
According to the ICSG projections, world copper mine production is expected
to rise to 14.98 million tons in 2005, an increase of about 460,000 tons, or
3.1%, from 2004. A further rise is expected to 15.74 million tons in 2006, an
increase of 760,000 tons, or 5.1%.
Unanticipated supply disruptions, principally in Chile and the U.S., resulted
lower production in 2005 than had been previously projected by the ICSG.
World production of refined copper (both primary and secondary) is projected
to increase to 16.3 million tons in 2005, an increase of about 480,000, or
3.1%, compared with 2004. Refined production in 2006 is projected to increase
to 17.65 million tons, an increase of about 1.32 million tons, or 8%, compared
with 2005.
"Inventories of copper concentrate developed in previous years are expected
to be sufficient to account for the disparity in growth between concentrate
production and refined copper production in 2006," the ICSG added.
World refined copper use in 2005 is projected to decrease by about 237,000
tons, or 1.4%, to 16.45 million tons. Strong growth in China and India was more
than offset by declines in use in North America and the European Union, said
the ICSG. However, use in 2006 is forecast to grow by 5.5%, or about 900,000
tons, to 17.36 million tons, with an increase anticipated in all major
consuming regions.
"Despite the decline in world use of copper in 2005, refined production was
insufficient to meet demand and the production deficit that developed in the
preceding years continued into 2005," said the ICSG. |
