Hello John
I took my profits on the correction based on two factors:
1. There was going to be at least a two week, if not longer delay between SUF outcrop announcement and any subsequent drilling announcement. Too long for the shares to hold their speculative momentum.
2. While I have more confidence in the knowledge and integrity of SUF management than in any other miner on the market, even they can not guarantee a pipe. SUF loves the chemistry and geology on this property. If they didn't, they would not have spent the majority of their time on it along with some $8 million in exploration capital.
However, to date, this property has proven to host dykes in considerable numbers and in inconsistent patterns. The WSP property to the south, and the GGL property to the southeast, have both had similar difficulties, but in the later case, the dyke emplacemenst were less prolific.
Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of locating a pipe or pipes, certainly Klipspringer is evidence of that. But if past NWT diamond exploration is any indicator, it reduces the odds of finding pipes and of their emplacement in the first place.
Obviously SUF still believes in that possibility or they would not be investing so much time and effort.
However, I had made a tidy paper profit, and I thought it wise to take it. In the junior game, it will not remain on the table for very long.
Some players might want time to pass before any announcement. The longer SUF takes to make an anouncement, the less volume will flow on this stock. In our favour, if there has been one indicator of a pro or negative announcement on KLA, it has been management's greed one to three days before the announcement.
I will be happy to wait. If the share price drops to the mid forties before an announcement, I will consider buying again, but only a modest position this time as management's penchant for feeding off its investors occures all too often. I do not wish to be the next meal.
I have been an SUF investor from the early days and I think I can say with some confidence, that they will only announce what they consider to be material progress/news. In the past, when they were drilling into dykes, they did not bother to announce the results until the drill program was completed. Finding dykes in their opinion simply was not material progress/news.
" Applefax" earned his nick-name trying repeatedly to gain some tid bit to announce all summer, but SUF just will not be party to that kind of activity. There is no love lost there.
If the outcrop proves to be a dyke, SUF may not, and probably will not announce results until all the targets in the current program have been drilled.
A no pipe announcement will of course tank the KLA play and if you are correct about KLA management's trading tactics John, unless they are very slick, they will be selling one to three days in advance of the next announcement. With the current low volume however, I can not help but think that they will be left holding alot of paper.
If the volume and price start to bump, either the announcement will be positive, or KLA may wish to create that impression while they unload into early speculators.
At the volumes I was trading, I am resigned to give up some potential profit and buy back in only after any positive SUF announcement.
For what its worth, and I very much hope I am wrong, but I am begining to fear that if SUF found a pipe, it was not as big as they would like. Some time has passed since the drill first turned and a pipe is material progress!
The market wants to hear two to three hectares or more with similar circular anomolies nearby. If not, ........
Good luck & regards |
