Calling biofreak experts. AGIX has never, as far as I can tell, released data regarding PK of AGI-1067. So when they present a paper regarding in vitro data requiring pretty high concentrations of drug to have a significant effect, one wonders if that effect can actually be duplicated in humans. Given the fuzzy CART II results, one wonders if the drug could possibly work if YMB poster supra cmdr is even close on his estimates of serum concentration of AGI-1067. Here's the paper in question, followed by his posts questioning its in vivo applicability:
finance.messages.yahoo.com
finance.messages.yahoo.com
finance.messages.yahoo.com
Comments appreciated.
I am long and writing calls. The idea was to bail with a reasonably safe profit from the covered call writing campaign of a few months before the ARISE study results come out. That is, I expect to be out by January expiration. I think the study will fail, and I might even reverse course and buy some puts with a summer expiration.
This strategy is a an attempt to improve on the hedge fund manager Peter once quoted as saying "short all clinical trials." It attempts to capture fat option time premium from high implied volatilities as the release date draws near. Then, with those winnings, one could play the short side (or long side, if one has a fairly string expectation of success; obviously not the case here) by buying puts (calls) to take highly leveraged advantage of the data release. The first part makes the high entry price of the second part a lot easier to swallow. One could, of course, simply do part one and watch the actual event from the sidelines.
The strategy could apply to all binary events involving optionable stocks. In such circumstances, there is usually enough liquidity in the options for easy entry and exit, and reasonable bid/ask spreads.
Cheers, Tuck |
