Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: vinod Khurana who wrote (17255)	9/14/1997 2:13:00 AM
From: Don Earl	of 42771

Hi vinod, A move to 13 will neither be a rally nor a technical move. If Novell moves to 13 it will be based on earnings and nothing else. An announcement of a good COO should break through the next level of resistance and produce a good deal of volitility between 10 and 11, then it will be day trading time again. A major ad campaign will catch the attention of investors, and hopefully new customers. The 9 1/2 to 10 area should start filling in solid once people start seeing the ads. The 12 day MA is turning down and the price/volume bar chart does not look very stable but the stochastic chart looks the way it has for every major move NOVL has made in the last 3 months. I expect Monday and Tuesday to be choppy and unpredictable. I'd be real surprized to see anything below 8 7/8 and the window below 9 will be small. If your target price is below 9 stay glued to the screen and have your order loaded and ready to go. The estimates for Q4 are around +.02. The best I can come up with is that these numbers ignore Border Manager altogether. Not only do you have Border Manager sales you also have inventory levels to maintain. I also believe Schmidt bled the channel dry and will slowly bring levels up to normal over the next few quarters, unlike past management that instantly turned around and restuffed, it seems likely that Schmidt will start showing slow growth from quarter to quarter. Keep in mind that companies DO NOT start major construction projects for no reason. Forget about the cost and start wondering why they need the extra room. Regards, Don

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