The new plant, known as fab 28, in Israel is expected to require a $4.4 billion investment, "of which we believe about 62% would be for equipment, representing 38% more than our estimate for Intel's 45 nm fab in Arizona," Chin wrote in a research report.
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That's an interesting fact. 4.4B$. Let's see, AMD is building one 65nm plant only to keep up with Intel's manufacturing prowess to be on line in 2007. They'd be uncompetitive without it, and they're not sure they can pay for it, b.c they're not sure they can sell the volume it will generate. Given the growth of the uP semi industry to 2X in 2009 what it is now (AMD's estimate), AMD will certainly need to start another plant at 45nm in 2008 for operation in 2010. That's only two years away. And, that plant can't be co-located with the other plant so there are no synergies. AMD will have to beg, borrow and steal (read build in Germany with subsidies, borrow B$'s, win the lawsuit) in order to do this. Or, they will have to be *exceptionally* successful in winning market share from Intel in 2006 (read 50%). I find this to be unlikely.
Move up 50,000'. There aren't many companies around that can build the kind of manufacturing capability needed to manufacture semis at these levels. That's why Samsung is pouring 10B$ into infrastructure. There will only be a few large manufacturers and others will have to pay the price for fab outsourcing. It's a lot like the GM of the 40's, no?
Smooth |
