I think our differences come down to my belief that the market which includes "people who need some of the PC-like capabilities, but who are proposing to fulfill these with Internet applications" is significantly smaller than the untapped market of people whose needs are less but who have been priced out or just don't want to deal with the hassles of viruses, compatibility issues, configuration headaches, overqualified operating systems and the like.
The basic NC--consisting of a commodity cpu; some flash-rom with BIOS, Java OS, browser, etc; mpeg-2 video and sound; a goodly amount of memory (which is cheap and getting cheaper); a modem, and usb or firewire i/o for peripheral connectivity--will allow the brunt of the heavy lifting for this typical information consumer's apps to be carried out in the back end. The NC will do much less demanding tasks (user interface, graphics, java applets). Upgradability concerns will be largely relegated to the backend where they belong. This will lengthen the life and reduce the configurabilty requirements of the basic NC, allowing the consumer electronics manufacturers to go to work. With longer lifespan and lower price, the NC will be more like a TV or VCR than a PC.
Another point to consider is that because NC's (unlike PC's) are viable without the hard drive and the Microsoft software, they can be sold without these additional cost burdens. That's got to be worth at least $200-300. CD's, DVD's, game cartridges, even hard drives will be options that can be added later, not necessarily at the time of purchase. By atomizing the device, the NC model gives consumers an easier entry point -- both in terms of price and ease of use -- as well as greater flexibility.
Yet another point is the possibility NC's open up that Telcos, ISPs, and other service providers may want to lease out NC's to their customers for nominal amounts (like some do with cell phones). Yet another way to tap the broader market that no doubt has Gates, Dell, and others a bit concerned.
As for the people who need PC-like capabilities, let them keep their PC's. My point is that NC's will likely cut dramatically into the growth of PC makers and PC-based software vendors--not necessarily cause their sales to shrink or even flatten. But growth reduction is enough to send their high PE stocks reeling. Also, as bandwidth improves, there will be less the PC can do that the NC can't, so you could say that time and progress are on the NC's side. |
