To be sure, this is a speculative stock. I think most VSGN investors are not paying as much attention to the company's past numbers as much as they would to those of even other tech stocks. Moreso than most, VSGN is a forward looking stock whose success is based on something that is not here yet, but promises to explode - network computing based on distributed objects.
If the internet is the network of highways that touches every corner of the world, VSGN's products (the Object Request Brokers) are the road signs. The problem for VSGN is that most of the trucks and loading docks (the distributed business objects and object databases) are still being designed and built, but when these go into production, the road signs will have to go up all over the globe in order for them to find their way.
I think VSGN investors are betting that the internet as well as declining costs and better quality of computing power, network bandwidth, object databases, and object tools -- all these factors together will enable the creation of applications that will spur new internet commerce, which will in turn lead to more adventurous applications...a virtuous cycle of ever-growing value being created and exchanged over the internet.
VSGN's market is small now, but I strongly believe it will explode within two years. The critical mass just hasn't been reached yet. Of course, the risk is that it will never be reached, but knowing a few things about the relationship between software and business, I'm betting it will. |
