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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 330.35

+0.5%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (27025)	11/20/2005 11:12:13 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) of 95707

RE: "5. However, it seems fair to say - there is correlation over the long term. Earnings estimates have stayed at good levels over several quarters. As you know, the weekly tables for many months kept LRCX in the top spot in the Group when sorted by PEG. Value has won out over the long term, but it took quite awhile to be reflected in the stock price." I owned two that were on your top PEG sort, LRCX and UTEK. LRCX met its estimates and remains a bargain while UTEK pushed out sales of its new tool and continues to invest heavily in R&D so its PEG is now on the low end of the chart since EPS were adjusted for this delay. So, value won out on LRCX while "bad estimates of forward earnings" won out for UTEK. If I go back and look at the best times to buy LRCX, I believe it was when PEG was high. Here is one of your charts I forwarded to my subscribers about when I was adding to LRCX with a high PEG ( I think my best buy that cycle was $8.xx ... missing the $6 bottom considerably on a percentage basis... but not too bad overall.) 10/4/02 10/25/02 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG TGAL 0.36 0.63 75 NANO 2.00 3.46 73 -0.19 WFR 4.12 6.40 55 0.40 16 20 0.80 TER* 7.98 11.97 50 -0.31 20 MTSN 1.35 2.00 48 -0.47 23 SFAM 3.62 5.31 47 0.22 24 18 1.38 COHU 10.72 15.67 46 0.31 51 13 4.04 LRCX 7.59 11.06 46 0.29 38 21 1.86 NVLS* 20.25 29.28 45 0.44 67 23 2.96 LTXX 3.69 5.32 44 -0.33 20 KLIC 2.38 3.32 39 -0.81 20 ASML 6.00 8.30 38 0.15 55 15 3.69 SMTL 4.46 5.95 33 0.13 46 21 2.20 PLAB 8.63 11.43 32 0.22 52 23 2.26 ATMI 13.19 17.00 29 0.22 77 21 3.77 CYMI 18.40 23.67 29 1.05 23 25 0.90 BRKS 10.98 14.08 28 -0.10 20 AMAT* 11.33 14.51 28 0.39 37 20 1.83 KLAC* 26.90 33.62 25 1.53 22 23 0.96 PHTN 17.20 21.22 23 1.02 21 25 0.83 VECO 10.45 12.70 22 0.55 23 22 1.06 ASYT 5.00 5.90 18 0.55 11 20 0.54 CMOS 7.30 8.43 15 -0.62 20 DPMI 18.35 20.60 12 0.55 37 21 1.78 HELX 8.96 9.85 10 0.22 45 25 1.79 FSII 2.72 2.80 3 20 UTEK 7.07 7.19 2 -0.26 25 EGLS 1.58 1.44 -9 -2.24 19 TOTALS 242.58 313.11 29 2.91 108 SOX-X 226.95 292.48 29 COMPQX1139.90 1331.13 17 They key to great gains seems to be "out guessing the Analysts" for future earnings. This usually happens when they are all trying to out do each other for the most bearish warnings... How we can chart this for a better signal, I sure wish I knew... but at least we can keep trying ideas here.

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