2006 May Bring the Next Technology Wave
SG Cowen & Co.
1221 Ave. of the Americas
New York, N.Y. 10020
(Tel) (212) 278-4000
FOR TECHNOLOGY INVESTORS, 2006 is shaping up to have much in common with 1991--a period in which a new computer architecture took root while tech sector product cycles grew vastly in number. The relative valuation context, the psychology/funds flow context, the economic context and the architectural context are mightily similar. Only the stock market context is less hospitable.
No matter what is in store for the broad stock market in 2006, we believe the technology sector is at a tipping point--with tech stocks likely to become more obvious relative to other sectors over the next several years.
It is a movie we have all seen before: the mainframe wave, the minicomputer wave, the personal-computer wave, and the client/server wave were all accompanied by unprecedented increases in business productivity and in the proliferation of digital goods. In each wave, fear was much in evidence. Corporations feared the potential competitive consequences of not spending enough on technology. Institutional investors feared the potential career consequences of not owning enough technology stocks.
We have all seen the sequels too: each of these four waves was followed by a frustrating "wave flat" period marked by pervasive overcapacity and a lack of "new killer apps"/productivity drivers. In each wave, flat period, corporations have reined in technology spending while investors became conditioned to expect minimal returns.
From multiple perspectives, the technology outlook in November 2005 appears to have a tremendous amount in common with the outlook in November 1990. 1991 proved to be a watershed year for technology investors -- the beginning of a multiyear period in which a new computing architecture took hold, of tremendous product cycle innovation, and of technology stocks outperforming the broad market.
-- Arnie Berman |
