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From BARRONS:
GOING SOFT -: PERHAPS 300,000 ARE WRITING SOFTWARE USING JAVA ÿ
Perhaps 300,000 developers are already writing software using Java: IBM alone employs 2,500 and plans to launch a full suite of Java software this fall. Developers go for Java because they can write a piece of software just once and it will, in theory, run on any hardware and any operating system. That saves a lot of work because it means a new version of the software doesn't have to be created for every type of operating system.
This wouldn't be good news for Microsoft, though, because developers would no longer be obliged to tailor their software to its ubiquitous Windows system. For each dollar in sales that a typical software writer generates, an in-house writer at Microsoft generates far more dollars in sales, says George Gilder, editor of the Gilder Technology Report, who's a big fan of the Java approach. Gilder believes software writers want to change those economics so they can make better returns writing programs for systems other than Microsoft's.
The change is already evident in software that's being written for Internet servers and access providers. Less than half of this 'Net software is being written for use on NT, Microsoft's network operating environment. Java programs appearing on Web sites now outnumber those written in Microsoft's language by seven to one, according to Gilder.
Microsoft is not taking the Java threat lightly. The company is pursuing what appears to be a four-pronged counterattack: Microsoft has procured a Java license from Sun along with permission to alter and improve the language on its own. The company is also continually upgrading its software to be more competitive with Java-based offerings for networks and the Internet. Microsoft has hired some Java software developers, although there are no plans as yet to develop major Java products. And in case the network computer concept does take off, NCs that run on Microsoft software are already available.
Bill Gates seems to think he has his flanks covered. "What's so crazy about the talk around NCs [is that] Windows-based terminals have been around through third parties for years," said Gates in a recent interview with Barron's, fittingly conducted over the Internet. "And our hardware partners are offering NetPCs, which are simplified PCs that are easy to use within corporations." The NetPCs, of course, also run Windows.
GOING SOFT -: THE HYPE SURROUNDING JAVA MAY BE OVERBLOWN
ÿ
The hype surrounding Java may be overblown. Some technical experts
complain that Java is too slow, and Microsoft contends that Java
doesn't work effectively on all operating systems. Still, the threat from Java cannot be ignored. Right now engineers at IBM, Sun, Novell and Netscape Communications are working 'round the clock to de-bug the language, and many big companies, including Philips, British Telecom, CSX and Norwest, are interested in Java's potential.
What's really creating the excitement about Java is dollars and cents. As computers get faster and take on more memory, and software gets more complex, the cost of maintaining a personal computer has skyrocketed. Technicians must install an endless stream of software upgrades on each PC, and that's a never-ending task when you consider the thousands of personal computers in any large corporation.
Perversely, although PCs are cheaper than ever to buy, they are more
expensive to maintain. According to an oft-cited Gartner Group report, it now costs an average of just $2,000 to purchase a typical machine but $11,900 a year to maintain it, what with technicians' salaries, training and various upgrades. Java enthusiasts claim these support costs can be cut as much as $9,000 by running applications in the Java language.
THE ADVANTAGE OF JAVA COMES DOWN TO DOLLARS
-- Here's the way it works: Instead of sending technicians around every few months to install upgrades on each PC, the new software can be sent automatically by a powerful central "server" computer, and the upgrades can be distributed to each PC by either a local network or the Internet. Meanwhile, Java's "garbage collection" feature can help clean up files and delete outmoded software automatically. Once you are running a network, you also eliminate the need to have lots of software on each individual PC; you can just download what you need from the server when you need it. And you may not ever need all the fonts, colors, dictionaries and layout gimmicks residing in a complex word-processing package like Microsoft Word. If all you want to do is write a letter, just download a small Java application, or "applet," with those very basic functions.
In fact, Java may allow companies to throw out the $2,000 personal
computer altogether and replace it with a simpler $500 Network
Computer, or NC. Network computers can download Java software
from a central server when needed and tap into big databases over
networks. The NC concept is fervently supported by Sun's McNealy
and Oracle chief Lawrence Ellison. They both hope to undermine
Microsoft's dominant position on the desktop through their vision of a new computer architecture, combining powerful servers, fast networks, NCs and Java applets, or tiny focused programs. "Within five years we'll beat them," predicts McNealy.
DOW JONES NEWS 09-13-97
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