Speculating in Takeover Targets Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Speculating in Takeover Targets

ULBI 6.230

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Jan 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (895)	11/23/2005 6:06:28 PM
From: richardred	Read Replies (3) of 7256

I think it's a good gamble, at this point. If you hold, and if a hostile offer is upped and successful. Possibly more cash being offered, is in the PR. You also could be stuck with some MNT stock. Witch may, or may not, be a good thing. I find it amusing that Medicis is asking Inamed's board to rally shareholders to reject a higher offer from Allergan Inc. I find this point below key. This suggest to me Allergan is expecting Federal trade commission trouble. >Allergan has said it would immediately divest Inamed's Reloxin license to minimize any antitrust issues in its proposal to acquire Inamed. Ultimately, that might give Medicis a second shot at gaining access to Inamed's Botox-like product if its deal with Inamed collapses. "Medicis might just get everything they want and the $90 million break-up fee. We'll just have to see," Gunderson said. The possible risk I see here is. Medicis will up its offer to a much stronger cash rich Allergan. A fight I don't think Medicis can win. I expect it to take it's 90 million break up fee and run. I think Mentor is anticipating this also. The FTC could also stall this deal. Best case scenario -Allergan being a White knight buying both Inamed and Medicis. Worst case -Mentor backs off and stock most likely sinks back stightly above where it was trading before their interest. Good Luck >points in your court >Mentor said it expects the transaction to immediately boost cash earnings. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings per share of $1.59 in 2006 and $1.98 in 2007. In the conference call, Levine said he would expect the transaction to raise earnings per share in the low double-digit percentages. However, CIBC analyst John Calcagnini repeatedly called that estimate too high. >Mentor was asked if it would consider a hostile bid if resistance continues. "We're going to wait for the dust to settle," Levine said on the call. "We know what our options are." > more possible white knights (Merk)

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